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Sunday, March 09, 2008

Happy Veto Ceremony Day!

It feels just a bit cheeky to say Happy Veto Ceremony Day, since half the house is going to be anything but happy, and the unhappy half will include Joshuah. In terms of the live feeds today, tonight and until the live show, we're very likely looking at a Chernobyl sized meltdown from Joshuah... At the moment, he and his whole crew are still operating under the notion that their plan is going through, and Matt is about to be backdoored.

It's gonna get ugly!

My prediction for Joshuah's next target for complete and total dismemberment is Natalie. He's been keeping it in check since he found out she divulged the plan to Matty, but once the Veto Ceremony happens... BOOM!

I believe Josh will give Natalie the same treatment Amanda and Allison got, and that at some point, Natalie will crack and try to get Josh to like her again by pointing the finger at Sheila for her involvement in turning the tide and the target away from Matt and towards Joshuah... Then, if she's clever, she'll say it was her idea to take the target off Joshuah and point it towards James.

No matter what Ryan does, half of the house will be gunning hard for him next week. Every word he's said for the past 36 hours points to Ryan backdooring James. Someone's got to go every week, and Ryan believes this is the strongest move for him, period. He's entitled to do what he wants. I believe both plans had merit, and Ryan's only real mistake was in guaranteeing both sides they had a deal.

What Ryan doesn't know is that the next HoH is bound to be an endurance comp, and women tend to win those, so by numbers alone, he's back on the underdog team as soon as the HoH Endurance Comp begins. Sure, it'll be 2-2 on the women count, but one of Ry's women is Sheila...

Why am I so sure (99%) about it being endurance? Well, during Big Brother 5 & 6, the endurance comp happened immediately following the exit of the last HG to not be part of the jury house. That eviction is this week. During Big Brother 6 and 7, they were held right before the last non jury member was evicted. Season 6, it was held immediately following Kaysar (the evicted HG's) return.

Seeing a parallel here? We're overdue.

With the return of one of the evicted HGs immediately following the eviction, the head count in the house goes back up to 9... leaving 7 jurors and 2 finalists. Endurance awaits us...beginning near the end of the Live Show and continuing on the live feeds. (I can't wait!)

Now then, since the next HoH is extremely likely to be the 1st Endurance Comp, and women win those, that only leaves the Bro-lliance one real contender for the comp: Natalie. If they had to pick one woman for athletic ability alone, Natalie's the strongest female in the house, but will that translate into an endurance win for them? It's possible, but I'm not feeling it.

Sure, Sheila's on their side too, but her comp worthiness doesn't really offer them a whole lot of hope for an endurance comp.

On the other side, Chelsia and Sharon, are the most likely victors. What do they have going for them? Chelsia's got personal vengeance, and in BB endurance comps, that's a huge motivator. You need only think back as far as Daniele's endurance comp win following Nick's eviction during BB8 for an example. The question is, and always has been, does Chelsia actually give a hoot about James, or has their whole relationship been one of convenience for her? If it's the latter, she wont have the fire required.

Sharon, on the other hand, has a very calm and determined demeanor, a slender body and a marine corps upbringing... I think all of those factors will serve her well during the Endurance Comp.

What do you think?

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41 Comments:

Blogger EvelAlida said...

Gotta agree with ya here mama, I think you nailed it with this post......

Fantastic arguments for whatever path Ryan chooses as far as who he is going to backdoor. Personally i preferred it when Joshuah was the target, and since it flipped to James it doesnt have the same oomph for me.

My reasoning there is because I don't like either Matty OR Joshuah, so whatever Ryan chose to do, made me smile :-)

Now it boils down to what is best for Ryan, and well, stuck on this one. Not really all that sure which choice is the better decision, because Ryan is 5th in line on the 4 person alliance of Team Josh and then Matt is such a snake, who knows what number he falls under with that jerk.........

As far an endurance prediction, sounds about right AND if he goes with backdooring James, will not end well for Ryan, cause I agree, Sharon & Chelsia have a far better chance of winning it over Natalie & Sheila, hence the demise of Ryan when the rage hits them of what he did........

Chelsia's fire may be lit for other reasons though, not necessarily BECAUSE it is James they are planning to backdoor(cause truthfully, I don't think it's all that personal for her when it comes to him, she couldn't care less believe me). Just the feeling of being betrayed and having "one of her own" getting booted may be the fuel she needs to win it and get Ryan..........

This is going to be delicious no matter what Ryan decides. Either choice is juicy and going to be extremely fun to watch unfold :-)

EvelAlida

8:31 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

In the beginning I liked the Josh/Sharon/James/Chelsia alliance; but it seems they have let the power of HOH go to their head. They're now power starved and are trying to control Ryan's HOH. I think the underestimate Ryan's ability to think for himself. I would love to see James go! He's, in my opinion, the least deserving of the final prize.

I don't know about anyone else, but the shallowness of James, Chelsia, and Josh is also really getting to me. They bash everyone in the house on a very personal level, and I know some of it is game, but the rest of it is their character.

8:42 AM  
Blogger Cliff O'Neill said...

So much to say!!!

A.) If it's endurance, my money's on Sharon (or maybe Chelsia). Natalie's athletic, but too top heavy.

B.) Did you see last night how James and The Despicable Josh were discussing stuff in the hammock with Chelsia?

How James was on MTV's Next? Does ANYBODY have a link to that? He talked about how he did the, um, naked swing and catch on the bus. My goodness!

He said he was cast from Craigslist. Chelsia didn't know what that was. She's internet dense, it seems.

And one of the HGs was on Fear Factor? Again, YouTube link please!

I just wish it was Josh who was being backdoored. (No joke necessary there.)

8:42 AM  
Blogger Jessie said...

Good Morning Carolyn! I have missed you dearly!!

I will keep my fingers crossed that Natalie wins HOH! Although I am not sure how well she'll use it to her advantage.

Otherwise, I think Sharon will probably win it. Chelsia is too easily sidetracked I think, she won't be able to stay focused if she gets angry.

Ryan, poor dude, I think he has messed himself up making promises to everyone, BUT, as Matty said, it IS BIG BROTHER. What else do they expect?

All 3 (J/J/M) NEED to go, so I'll be happy with whomever he sends packing. Although I feel very sure if Matt stays, he is doomed faster.

Just my 2 cents for sunday breakfast!

Happy Day Light Savings Time fellow bloggers, we've all lost an hour :(

8:45 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

What was the last one.?? What did they have to do?

8:45 AM  
Blogger MsPilatesLovr said...

I agree that Ryan shouldn't have made promises to both sides of the house. Next week he will be the main target and the other side has the numbers to get him out if they want. I think that's what bothers me the most about Ryan is that he gave his word and hugged on it with James/Chelsia and Sharon/Josh. He's better off with his first agreement.

8:52 AM  
Anonymous Jeannie said...

Happy Sunday
woo hoo let the drama begin today. I cracked up this morning when I saw the Josh made the National Enquirer for his drug and stripping past.

8:52 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

they should back door james

8:54 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

If Alex is the one coming back and he knows he is playing the game for himself now, he will be well rested and probably not know the whole story of past events in the house.....so he will be pumped to go for it. Same goes for anyone who comes back, I would think. And also if they get to participate.All evictees will have "revenge" on their minds.

8:58 AM  
Blogger Jessie said...

Mornin Cliff!

Yeah, Matt was on Fear Factor and someone on here said he was also on Taxicab confessions.

I am not familiar with the ones you said James was in, what kind of shows are those??

That is one reason why I stated earlier, that I didn't want Matt to win, he is show-hopping. He's making a living doing this... and says he's a roofer. He might have been before he decided to join reality TV.

That's just my opinion, of course.

9:01 AM  
Blogger Jessie said...

Oh and did I mention, I can't wait for Wednesday already, gosh darnit!

9:02 AM  
Blogger Jessie said...

I watched a youtube video of Josh trying to find/steal Nats clue napkin - anyone know where she DOES hide it??

I guess the stealing goes right along with the lying. Oh, wait, Josh has been stealing peoples stuff the whole time he's been in the house hasn't he??

9:04 AM  
Blogger paigekorean said...

Hi Carolyn! I've been busy with work and school, so (thank goodness for you!) I have relied on bb9dish to keep me up to date! And let me tell you, I am disappointed in Ryan. Considering Matt's previous loyalty to the Bro alliance, I would never give him a second chance!

Shelia's argument that convinced him could have gone both ways, yes eventually j/c j/s would break down the bros and then get rid of ryan- but once the bros (and hos they are now saying for nat and shelia) break down j/c j/s- guess who the first to go will be? RYAN.

Obviously, I am a j/c j/s fan, and my least favorite in the house is a tie between matt and nat. I just have had enough of the brainless bimbo chasing after the arrogant a-hole. You know what I mean? And I'm tired of slapping my palm to my forehead whenever I think nat finally has strategy and runs back to matt and says so and so said this about you, or shows EVERYONE the numbers she wrote down- as useless as they may end up, she is at least trying to play the game.. until she shares her information with all!

I have accepted that James is going home now. That alright with me now because I feel that you are right about Sharon or Chelsia, or even Josh, winning an endurance comp! And then I see Ryan and Nat going up, and then I see HOH winning veto and making a deal with someone on the block to replace them with Matt. Or just someone taking themselves off and replacing with Matt. But we cannot lose sight of the primary target again- it is time to EVICT Matty!!

And I just can't wait to watch the endurance comp on my new live feeds!!

9:07 AM  
Blogger Izzy said...

I hope the houseguest who comes back in chooses who is evicted.
Sharon, I hope will stay in and do endurance. To those in the house, she isn't an obvious choice but to us she could be.
And Natalie, strongest? I was watching the feeds once and she was struggling to lift the weightlifting bar with NO weights on it.

9:08 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I am hoping the pressure will get to Matt being nice to Nat an he won't be able to keep up the facade. It seems like Matt is keeping Ryan too busy to think about who will likely win the HOH.I too would bet on Sharon. But whoever comes back in will probably have a huge motivation factor.
Thanks for all the posts Carolyn.
Rosarito E

9:11 AM  
Blogger ~imogen said...

jessie, apparently natalie had to give the napkin over in the dr.. she *said* they took it cause she was about the crack the code and they didn't want that happening..



my money is on sharon to win the endurance comp. tho for the power couple who came in second? i have a feeling it was matt and natalie, but i could be wrong.

9:13 AM  
Anonymous Samantha said...

Don't forget though, if Alex (fingers crossed**) is the HG that returns he's going to be on Matty, Adam, Ryan, Nat, an Shelia's side. Yea Matt campaigned against him when they were both up, but they left each other on great terms and he had a good relationship with Shelia. So that at least adds anoher guy to their side for the endurance comp, but they HAVE to get this HOH. Today is going to be fantastic I think this is the best move that could possibly be made by Ryan, he went from a boring to ballsy HOH.

9:14 AM  
Blogger Doc Rocket said...

Good Morning Carolyn!!! I must say, I absolutely love this morning's post. It is refreshing to hear your thoughts and analysis on the game. My favorite post yet.

I agree that Josh is going to flip, though I hope it isn't nuclear. In all honesty, it'll be an understandable anger and my hope is that it will be just the right amount of betrayal to further unite him and his alliance. The house is heading for a real split.

I slightly disagree with the part about Ryan and his decision. He is fully entitled to his own decision and I understand why he thinks it is the best move. But the fact that Sheila and Adam are floating a bit would have given him an opportunity to sway them towards taking Matty out. In other words, had he gone right to Adam and pled his case about back dooring Matty, he might have been successful at pulling him in. This would have put him in a better place for next week. Ultimately, when you are HOH you want to push the target off of your back and evict a person with the most support you can muster from the house. Of course you want to take out your biggest competitor in the process. While Ryan is taking out a competitor of sorts, he is dividing the house into two parts...which essentially puts a target on his back with one side. Exercising a little charm and persuasion with Sheila and Adam would have untied Ryan with them, Sharon, Joshua, Chelsia and James leaving Matty evicted and Natty as a target instead of himself.

Also, choosing to align yourself with a person who stabbed you in the back and voted you out of the house (Matty), the biggest blabber mouth in the house (Natty) and the two people who haven't won any comps (Sheila & Adam) isn't the brightest move. It is Big Brother, not the game of life. That fraternity type of mentality "My guys and I are tight, we're a crew and we're gonna take over" doesn't really hold up. Adam is loyal, I'll give him that and he is a vote...but his loyalty would have held up if Ryan would have asked him to help him get Matty out...and if it didn't, Adam has had very little power in this game and is not a major threat.

If the next comp is an endurance challenge and either Chelsia or Sharon win, they should gun for Matty and put him up against Ryan. I am not convinced, however, that Matty isn't a contender. He has strength and he knows that this HOH is crucial for his survival. If the winner is a female I would say that Chelsia, Sharon and Natty all have a great shot at it, but I think Sharon and Chelsia will have the fire of betrayal burning strong in their hearts...Sharon knows they will put her on the block all over again and Chelsia will be enraged about James. If I had to choose I'd put my money on Sharon.

In addition, if Alex comes back he will certainly team up with Matty. How I wish they would have back doored him!!

9:22 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

BB took Nat's napkin away.

I think Josh will hold back this week realizing his numbers are dwindled. He'll just do the disappointed face with Ryan. Which will lead up to Josh's big flip out when Allison returns to the house! (Okay, this is more of a hope than a prediction.)

9:23 AM  
Blogger craighennigan said...

Matt has just as good a chance to win HoH. But your question was "WHat do I THink" I think you're a Joshuah Slappy and don't see that he's always been a slimy person. Now he's finally getting what he deserves in being blindsided by getting a teammate backdoored. And it serves James right, for folllowing Chels around like a puppydog and calling her paranoid when the DR clearly tried to tell her something and she was the only one who sniffed it out. If the Hater Club (Josh,James,Chel,Sharon) weren't so arrogant as to maybe talk to sheila and Natty and Baller, then maybe they wouldn't have put themselves in this situation. Their arrogance is their undoing, and I'll love it.

As for Ryan being a "target" of theirs, he's sitting in the catbird seat saying "So what? I have the votes now" Basically, suppose Sharon does win HoH. First off, if she doesn't switch sides and get a sub-alliance going (Esp after Josh has been trashing Sharon lately) then maybe Matt and Ryan go up. The house will vote out Matt before Ryan. Ryan wins in a lot of scenarios of being on the block. Better to be a target and play brave, than follow the fearsome foursome who won't be carrying you to anything.

9:29 AM  
Blogger nat said...

I think Josh is on the edge of a breakdown in that house. And it will be interesting to see if he can control his feelings today. Also I love James and chels.lol So I will be sad if James goes on the block and goes home. I think It is hard for J/C to play as singles since they were such a strong couple in the game. I agree that ryan made a mistake playing both sides just like Matt. I think Ryan should go with the house and BD Matt. Matt is too much of a strong player and I have no doubt that in the end Matt would do anything even BD Ryan to win the money.

9:31 AM  
Blogger Beth said...

Good morning Carolyn and all other BB Lovers! I wonder when the evicted houseguest will be comingback....before the HOH comp or after? If it is before, they might have the will to survive again and then win the comp! Should be interesting!

9:35 AM  
Blogger Doc Rocket said...

Cliff - http://www.nbc.com/Fear_Factor/bk/couples_matthew_jacquelyn.shtml

9:36 AM  
Blogger Angelus said...

What I am thinking about Sharon: What the hell is a "Marine Corps upbringing?" I was raised a Navy kid. My dad was a pilot, that does not mean that I know how to fly. I know about Navy life as a kid would and I think that translates to Sharon as well. It's not like she's some undercover Navy Seal or something. I don't think it gives her any advantage except in her head. I for one would love to see her go. Yes she is smart, but she is completely boring as they all say and I am sick of her.

Re Ryan, I hope he goes through with the James switch. He is smart for playing both sides and keeping it a secret. I can't wait to see Josh/Chelsia/James' faces when he puts up James. This is what BB is all about.

9:40 AM  
Blogger amber lee said...

You are right on the money Carolyn. Great post! It is time for an endurance comp. This next HOH will be do or die. Hopefully when Alex comes back, he will hold the damn button! And Josh/Chelsia/Sharon or James can fill him in on his bro Matty's evil ways and why he needs to go next.

9:44 AM  
Blogger Cliff O'Neill said...

To the what is MTV's Next question: It is a show which has to be seen to be "believed."

Basically, you have one girl or guy (gay or straight) who is looking for a date. The prospective dates sit in a bus. They introduce themselves with the STRANGEST intros (which are clearly written by people obsessed with penis and breast sizes). One by one they go to the bachelor/bachelorette and a clock starts running. At any point in the 1 hour date, the bachelor/bachelorette can yell "Next!" and the date has to go back on the bus and send the next person out.

If the date makes it to the end of the hour, the bachelor/bachelorette can ask the person to go out on a second date. Then the date can choose to take the date or take the money (something like ten dollars for every minute of the date).

It's beyond crazy.

James said he made it to a second date.

10:00 AM  
Anonymous JenyJunebug said...

don't you think that if alex comes back into the house he will be able to get sharon on their side since they were seemed to be getting close?

10:03 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

don't you think that if alex comes back into the house he will be able to get sharon on their side since they were seemed to be getting close?

10:06 AM  
Anonymous Heather said...

I am not lookig forward to the akwardness you know Josh is going to create after the veto cememony. I really want James to stay but with these numbers it doesn't seem likely but you know in the BB house things change in a matter of seconds. I was kind of hoping Ryan was playing both sides and he really has a different target other than James.

10:28 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Someone asked about a Fear Factor link to Matt's episode. Here it is:

http://www.nbc.com/Fear_Factor/bk/couples_matthew_jacquelyn.shtml

regards, marc

10:47 AM  
Anonymous Angie said...

Oops! "http://www.nbc.com/Fear_Factor/bk/couples_matthew_" cannot be found.

11:08 AM  
Blogger Beth & Eric said...

I tried the link to Fear Factor and it didn't work. This one did though, in case I'm not the only one!

http://www.nbc.com/Fear_Factor/bk/couples_matthew_jacquelyn.shtml


Would absolutely LOVE to see James on Next! So, Cliff, you watch MTV too, huh?! ;) (and LOL re: Josh)

11:17 AM  
Blogger Beth & Eric said...

Oh yeah, and Matt's on fear factor with his Ex! Kind of like a BB twist this season!

11:18 AM  
Blogger Beth & Eric said...

I think it's very interesting that we've all been assuming that Josh won't take his rage out on a man... Why can't he yell at Ryan like he yelled at Amanda & Allison? We think it will be a girl, thus Natalie? That makes me like his character less. If he's mad at Ryan, I hope he has the pair to yell at Ryan, and not take it out on Nat who has gone through enough with the actuall bully meat-head!

11:20 AM  
Blogger Beth & Eric said...

I agree that James is an extremely strong player, but I think that Ryan would be smarter to go ahead and evict Joshuah this week, and target James later. Major reason being the wrath discussed earlier!

11:21 AM  
Blogger Seffie said...

Matt NEEDS TO GO!
1) Because I just don't like him for many reasons that I won't bore people with since it's all been said in countless posts up to now!
2) Because if Alex is the one voted back in the house, he would help keep Matt strong. I don't want Matt advancing in the game too far!
3) For those who want to see Alex win if he comes back, Matt would need to be gone because I think he would be given the win if he makes it to final two - even if it is with Alex.
Ryan hasn't thought it through if he chooses to put up James. I don't like James, so I don't really care, but his team would fair better in all the comps after this week if they manage to stay intact this week. Sharon is the only one I have liked in that group so far. I think the Bro alliance would be weaker over all with Matt's absence than Josh's team would be with James' absence. The main problem is numbers. The bro alliance would still have numbers without Matt. The Four would not... Ryan's decision this week really is the MAIN turning point in the game for the whole season. His decision alone determines the direction the game will take. I never would have thought that it would be Ryan that would be in this position. I've said it before and I'll say it again. You never know with Big Brother!

11:24 AM  
Blogger Beth & Eric said...

For some reason, that link doesn't show up right!

It's: http://www.nbc.com/
Fear_Factor/bk/
couples_matthew_jacquelyn.
shtml

(but all on one line)

11:26 AM  
Blogger Beth & Eric said...

Matt & his ex's bio on Fear Factor. People could vote for them to be on the show... Sounds like the same Matty we've grown to know and love! (?)



Matt's Biggest Fear: Bees & Clowns
Jacki's Biggest Fear: Sharks

Matt & Jacki recently split up, but the sparks are still flying! Matt thinks Jacki is paranoid and jealous, while Jacki thinks Matt is a two-timing "play-ah." Both believe they can put aside their differences long enough to beat the competition and go home winners. What do you think?

11:28 AM  
Blogger Meredith said...

My dear Carloyn

Your analysis is excellent, bu you overlook a couple of key points.

First, there will be no more motivatd a gal on this planet than a Naalie with a Matt sending encouragement and love her way. You can take that to the bank. I will take that one further and say Matt pulls a Boogie and jumps off the comp very early on, knowing that he runs Natalie and can have her to all the work.

You preclude the possibiloity of an Allison return. Are you so certain we are getting Alex back (and if we do, I may have to start running Cougar ads on Craigslist bc he really gets the Mrs. Robinson going in me, not that I am that old). Allison could be a very strong contender as I have said previously. She is a long distance runner and will be extra determined for retribution and a strong likelihood she is a target, as far as she knows.

And, to quote the wisdom of Matty, gay guys are girls. Can you overlook Joshuah in this? He is one bitter and psychotic mofo who thinks the HOH is his predetermined chamber in his own personal castle. I wouldn't rule him out.

2:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

i agree with everything craighennigan said. I think its increadibly foolish for anyone to say that accepting josh's offer would be a good move for ryan. he gets 2 weeks saftey...but those two weeks only make j/s j/c position stronger in the game, leaving ryan in a weaker position with no chance of winning. This game is about winning, not being bullied into submission so others can win.

The whole house being after ryan?, well i think they would be more hard up to have matt leave, which j/s j/c had made real clear for the past 3 weeks. oh, and they wern't very good at hiding the fact that the 4 of them are in an alliance, meaning that their interest are for their own, and ryan knows that...everyone does.

4:23 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

don't forget when alex returns the bro's get even stronger, he will join matt and ryan and josh will crack. good riddens josh.

11:38 PM  

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